Coach Mike moving around the deck chairs
by: Bryan Hersh
In Jimmy Raye's place the 49ers have promoted Quarterbacks' Coach Mike Johnson to offensive coordinator. This action comes less than 24 hours after Head Coach Mike Singletary stood behind his coordinator and said he would remain in that role for the rest of the season. The real questions now are: 1) What or who made Singletary change his mind? and 2) Will things be any different?. I'll explore both these points below.
After having their tales handed to them by the Chiefs, reporters not surprisingly questioned Mike Singletary on the future of Jimmy Raye. The JRDL (Jimmy Raye Defamation League) started right on 49ersParadise.com was yearning for the right answer ... Coach stood by Raye though. The JRDL had to wait until today to get what it has wanted for far too long... one more day was certainly worth it though. JRDL can now disband and go happily into the sunset (though I'm sure some members will linger on the topic for some time - so is our nature as fans). The question is, what changed?
In less than 24 hours Jimmy Raye went from secure coaching position, re-enforced by the coach, to fired. I believe one of two things happened. Either a) Singletary was either convinced by an owner or quasi-general Manager that Raye had to be fired (perhaps with the threat that Singletary would be fired if he would not fire Raye) or b) Singletary lied to the media to give him time to review the game film and not make a rash decision in the emotion filled aftermath of a game. Singletary then came to the conclusion JRDL came to some time ago.
We fans will want to believe it is option 'b'. The 49ers will also want us to believe it is option 'b'. If it is option 'b', I do think it is worth stating I do not have much of a problem if Singletary lied to the media to buy some time to make this decision. I understand why he would want to be loyal to his coaching team in that scenario (though am not that encouraged by the throwing of his players under the bus citing poor execution at the same time). Singletary did refer to some major changes to come, and when you think about this, the only area the team can afford to make major changes is on the coaching staff. It is virtually impossible to overhaul a roster mid-season. Perhaps Singletary was 'saying _it_ without saying _it_' or perhaps not as he did also say "I don't know" in reference to what was wrong with the team.
It is really hard to look past option 'a' though to believe what the 49ers will want us to believe. It is hard to believe that after hiring Raye, sticking with Raye, and standing behind Raye for over a year, in the face of better, more qualified offensive coordinator candidates (some of who with Super Bowl, and head coaching Super Bowl experience), and further citing that he "didn't know" what was wrong with the team, that Singletary suddenly had the epiphany that fans, media, and perhaps others (maybe) even within the team had known since before Raye was hired.
Unfortunately, I have a really hard time believing that Singletary just came to this realization on his own. In fact, I am now questioning Singletary's competence to run this team - much in the same way Lowell Cohn did in his article published today. Coach Singletary stood behind a coach who could not relay plays to his quarterback. He has hired a very poor offensive coordinator in the face of many other more qualified candidates. He has also publicly cited that he does not know what is wrong with the team; and thrown players under the bus at the same time.
We all know that Singletary is a 'rah-rah' type of head coach, not necessarily the best 'X's and O's' type man. That does not mean he cannot be successful, but it does mean he needs to surround himself with the right people and perhaps more importantly not get in their way. Jimmy Raye was not the right person when he was hired, and he has not magically transformed into the right person over the time he was with the 49ers (hence the firing). Yet Singletary stood there, and let Raye make a fool of this team. At 0-3, the 49ers now face the ominous possibility of an 0-5 start to the season. Singletary let this get way to far out of hand. It can also be argued that the team was out coached from a game management and 'preparedness' stand point in at least 2 of the 3 games this season, and in many last year. I question Singletary's ability to turn this team around, and I question his ability to coach this team altogether. As of this moment I have seen nothing from Singletary that indicates to me that he can be successful as a head coach in the NFL. He staff's the wrong people, is slow to recognize a problem, and often refuses to acknowledge that the problem even exists.
All of this leads me to believe that Singletary was convinced by others in the front office, perhaps the owner, perhaps even the quarterbacks, that Jimmy Raye had to go. I question his competence if he had to be convinced of this, and if his job was on the line at the same time, then I have to question whether he still has control over the locker room as well. This really is not the position the 49ers had hoped they would be in heading into a season full of promise.
The end result of firing Raye is the same. We now focus on whether it will make any difference to this season. Is it too late? Too little too late? or worse yet, too little period.
Although Jimmy Raye is being made the scapegoat this week it is impossible to look past the defensive issues in the first and third week, as well as the game management issues that have been present. Game management issues are not restricted to getting the play calls into the huddle. They are also evident in making adjustments at half time, or sending the wrong players onto the field and having to burn time outs, or in under-estimating an opponent. All of these items speak to a larger issue than just the offensive coordinator. They also call into question the competence of Singletary. As explained above, Singletary could very well be coaching his last 13 games as coach of the 49ers. Too bad Holmgren and Shanahan among others were missed out because of a commitment to a coach who has never been a coordinator in the NFL.
The defense was absolutely beat up upon this past week. There may be some personnel changes at safety, but outside of that, the team is pretty much playing there best players. The bend but not break attitude has put the 49ers in precarious situations dating back to the Nolan era. This needs to be addressed as badly as offensive coordinator, but has not received the same attention. Similarly the 49ers are worse in the takeaway and quarterback pressure categories than even last season. Something has to be changed here, and I have a hard time believing this is simply a matter of keeping the offense on the field longer.
Singletary has been over-matched in game management since assuming the role of Head Coach. This was blatantly evidenced in the on-side kick routine, and 'go for it on 4th down' scenarios we all saw on Sunday. There was a time when the 49ers were the ones employing this trickery to gain the upper hand. Now the team is being victimized by the very same tactics. Either Singletary needs a crash course in head coaching, or this simply will not change until the Head Coach changes or grows over time. There is no excuse though, in my opinion, for the penalties and general lack of 'preparedness' to play we have seen this season - this is an area that the Coach should be able to stop the bleeding.
I have said for sometime that Alex Smith is the best play caller on the team. Against the Saints this was very evident as he lead a two minute drill efficiently down the field for the tie. Smith was also visibly disgusted with the play calling on Sunday. Smith needs to be trusted to call offensive plays, and there is no one better to trust him to do that than the man that knows him best - the quarterbacks' coach. We fans have not seen the play calling of Mike Johnson; it is hard to believe that it could be any worse than Jimmy Raye though. Reports indicate that Johnson is well regarded around the league, and that he has been studying spread offenses - the offensive system Smith has been most successful in. This is encouraging news, and I hope Johnson is better than Smith at calling plays, as good as Smith, or willing to let Smith take on even more responsibility.
Last season Matt Maiocco, now with CSN, asked Johnson about his offensive philosophy. Johnson responded in saying that "every quarterback is different and they bring something else to the table ... you have to be flexible as a coach and resist the temptation to over-coach them". This is common sense, but it is something Jimmy Raye just did not exemplify. The 49ers appear to be loaded with talent on their roster but this talent has largely been under utilized. I hope Johnson will play to the strengths of his quarterback and the rest of the team, and I hope Singletary will let him do it.
The question of whether things will be any different is a hard one to answer. We do not know much about Johnson. I like that Raye is gone. That had to happen. Johnson has been groomed for this role, and has the relationship with Smith, but if his mentor was Raye that could mean trouble. I also wonder if the team stayed away from Tom Rathman as a possible replacement because Rathman is a running coach, and the image of a running team is perhaps one of the reasons the 49ers have struggled. I hope that Johnson is the better option as Rathman is clearly a fan favorite at the very least. I also hope the team will consider interviewing other candidates if Johnson does not immediately prove himself this season.
One of the biggest problems the 49ers were having was around offensive predictability. Teams could predict what the 49ers were doing (heck my 2.5 year old niece could predict what the 49ers were doing) because of the repetitiveness and because of the personnel groupings. I would expect this to change - if it does not, than the firing was completely pointless. In fact, I would not be at all surprised if the 49ers first play from scrimmage next week is a "long bomb" from a running formation if for no other reason than to send a message of change.
All kidding aside though, the 49ers have enough weapons that if they line up Gore, Westbrook, Crabtree, Morgan (if healthy), and Davis every single play of the game, they should be able to move the ball and win. The only substitutions that really have to occur is Norris, Walker or Byham for Westbrook on occasion, and Dixon for Gore on occasion. On paper there is enough offensive talent, and miss match potential from this 'base' offense that the team does not have to reveal what it is doing based on substitutions. From this base grouping Alex Smith just needs to deliver the ball accurately and on time.
This was the season we were supposed to find out about Alex Smith. I simply cannot blame the loss to the Chiefs on Smith. I like what I have seen of him as a leader, and against the Saints. The Seahawk game was a bit of push in terms of Smith. He made mistakes but was also limited in what he could do. The change in offensive coordinator should not hold Smith back; if anything it should unleash him. It remains do or die time for Smith at quarterback.
Will things change? Yes. Somethings undoubtedly will change. The offense should be better, heck I believe I could call a better game than Raye did. The offense should be worlds better actually even if Johnson is only an average coordinator. Of course we really do not know enough about Johnson to commit to that - or if Singletary, whose competence I question, will let him do what needs to be done. There should be a shake up on the offensive line too, and I hope that is blatantly obvious for the 49ers to address before it festers into a forest fire like this one.
The game management will likely be more of the same. The 49ers can still win while making a mistake hear or there in game management, but Singletary needs to learn and grow as a coach each week. He also cannot afford to put a players health on the line for a meaningless touchdown as he did with Josh Morgan. That is poor coaching through and through. This area has to improve for true change to come, so does his handling of the media, and ability to recognize when to change direction, and the control over the locker room.
Things will not change though if the problems on defense are ignored. My worry is that these problems will remain ignored in much the same way the play calling was. Greg Manusky has his moments, but is also over matched at times. The team needs to be able to count on an improved defense or whatever other changes it has made will be useless.
I am a little worried that this move is too little. In the face of problem on defense and with overall game management, I cannot ignore that this move might be too little. If it is not too little, than I hope it is not too late. The team could drop to 0-5, and still afford to lose 2 games before having no chance at a NFC West crown. So if the change is appropriate, than perhaps it is not too late also. If it is too little, or too late, there will be big questions to fill at all major coaching positions and quarterback this off season.
Mark Naismith of HOTN cited the following:
Niners: No GM (Baalke), Mike Singletary, Jimmy Raye, Greg Manusky
Chiefs: Scott Pioli, Todd Haley, Charlie Weis, Romeo Crennel
Could it be any more evident why the 49ers were over-matched? As the team looks for change, they are doing it with unproven staff promoting unproven staff. Here's hoping the team does not continue to regret not anchoring some of the big name coaches and front office staff that have been available since the Nolan era. Change was needed, some change has come. It may or may not be enough change; we will find out very quickly. The questions about the entire coaching staff remains legitimate until proven otherwise or replaced.
Bryan Hersh is the Founder and President of 49ers Paradise, www.49ersparadise.com He is a good friend and supporter of Hooked on the Niners. Please contact Bryan with any questions or comments at bryan_hotn@49ersparadise.com